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Sunday, February 27, 2011

A nobody's predictions of Oscar winners

Here is a layman's perspective (mine) on who will, and who should, win Oscars in major categories during the 83rd Academy Awards tonight. 

Actor in a Leading Role

• Javier Bardem in “Biutiful”
• Jeff Bridges in “True Grit”
• Jesse Eisenberg in “The Social Network”
• Colin Firth in “The King's Speech”
• James Franco in “127 Hours”

My guess for winner: Eisenberg. Besides, it would be kind of tacky for a co-host of the Oscars to win a major award this early in the list.

Who should win: Firth. I haven't even seen the movie, but I'm hearing he's great in it and I believe it.

Actor in a Supporting Role

• Christian Bale in “The Fighter”
• John Hawkes in “Winter's Bone”
• Jeremy Renner in “The Town”
• Mark Ruffalo in “The Kids Are All Right”
• Geoffrey Rush in “The King's Speech”

My guess for winner: Bale. Because the Academy is perhaps afraid he'll have a temper tantrum if he doesn't win.

Who should win: Rush. Just because he's Geoffrey Rush. And if he can play a pirate that well...

Actress in a Leading Role

• Annette Bening in “The Kids Are All Right”
• Nicole Kidman in “Rabbit Hole”
• Jennifer Lawrence in “Winter's Bone”
• Natalie Portman in “Black Swan”
• Michelle Williams in “Blue Valentine”

My guess for winner: Portman. Her performance was so over-the-top that it may have confused the Academy into thinking it was brilliant (not to say it wasn't pretty good).

Who should win: Williams. For no other reason than that she dragged me into Dawson's Creek, and I didn't mind drowning.

Actress in a Supporting Role

• Amy Adams in “The Fighter”
• Helena Bonham Carter in “The King's Speech”
• Melissa Leo in “The Fighter”
• Hailee Steinfeld in “True Grit”
• Jacki Weaver in “Animal Kingdom”

My guess for winner: Bonham Carter. Because she's the only one I've heard of aside from Amy Adams.

Who should win: Bonham Carter. Because her shoes are cool.

Foreign Language Film

• “Biutiful” Mexico
• “Dogtooth” Greece
• “In a Better World” Denmark
• “Incendies” Canada
• “Outside the Law (Hors-la-loi)” Algeria

My guess for winner: Incendies. I've heard only amazing things about this film.

Who should win: Incendies. Because I love when Canada competes in a foreign language category.

Best Picture

• “Black Swan” Mike Medavoy, Brian Oliver and Scott Franklin, Producers
• “The Fighter” David Hoberman, Todd Lieberman and Mark Wahlberg, Producers
• “Inception” Emma Thomas and Christopher Nolan, Producers
• “The Kids Are All Right” Gary Gilbert, Jeffrey Levy-Hinte and Celine Rattray, Producers
• “The King's Speech” Iain Canning, Emile Sherman and Gareth Unwin, Producers
• “127 Hours” Christian Colson, Danny Boyle and John Smithson, Producers
• “The Social Network” Scott Rudin, Dana Brunetti, Michael De Luca and Ceán Chaffin, Producers
• “Toy Story 3” Darla K. Anderson, Producer
• “True Grit” Scott Rudin, Ethan Coen and Joel Coen, Producers
“Winter's Bone" Anne Rosellini and Alix Madigan-Yorkin, Producers

My guess for winner: The Social Network. Do half a billion people use True Grit? Exactly.

Who should win: The King's Speech. I haven't seen the movie, but I really do want to hear what the King has to say (there's a lot to be said for good promotion).

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